Professional allocation advice grounded in history not hype

TSP Smart Investor& Vanguard Smart Investor

S&P 500 index fund timing signals 


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The Advantage C model provides timing funds for S&P 500 index funds (recommended low cost index funds).

 

 

 

Based on our bull/bear market indications, we recommended not entering stocks at the start of the favorable season last year (Oct 2015).  As conditions continued to deteriorate we recommended staying on the sidelines since all of the conditions for a bear market had been met and by our measures became quite precarious by February 2016.  


The global central bankers were obviously seeing the same situation and unleashed unprecedented monetary interventions.  The market rallied starting in February and our signals reversed to positive in April shortly before the favorable season in equities was to end.  We remained on the sidelines until the beginning of the 2016 favorable season when we no longer saw the negative bull/bear signals and followed our models timing signals to re-enter equities.


Our override recommendations added approximately 5% to the small cap timing returns and subtracted approximately 5% from the larger SP500 signals.  In both cases sitting on the sidelines avoided significant volatility. 


It is my view we are merely in an extended bull market top due to massive global monetary interventions by the global central banks in an effort to advert a bear market and another financial crisis.  I do not think at these historically high valuations we have entered a new bull market.  At some point, I will once again recommend sitting on the sidelines once indications point to the bear market expresses itself once again.

 

 

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