Independent allocation advice grounded in history not hype

TSP Smart®  
  & Vanguard Smart Investor

avoid large losses

1) Bear Market Warnings

2) Reduced exposure to stocks during the unfavorable season


E-mail alerts            Online Reports             Almanacs     



I can’t read enough!  You are saying all of the things I have been saying!  I have been successful for quite some time at stocks, but starting last December, I lost my read of the market.  Your writing is spot on and largely correct at guessing the future direction.  Love the service.  Naval aviator with an interest in finance…sounds familiar.  


Mr. Bond,

I was signed up with Sy Harding from March 2009 until his death. I told him once that I didn't know who was the smartest market adviser in the business but I was certain he was #2. I found TSP smart online last February and signed up. You have saved my six about five times in the past year. I'll be renewing and will keep trying to spread the word about your service. It is unreal how buy and hold has been sold to investors.

I believe I have finally found #1.

Best wishes for the new year and many more to come.


Please JOIN and start learning today.


I can’t read enough!  You are saying all of the things I have been saying!  I have been successful for quite some time at stocks, but starting last December, I lost my read of the market.  Your writing is spot on and largely correct at guessing the future direction.  Love the service.  Naval aviator with an interest in finance…sounds familiar.  


TSP Allocation Advice for Serious & Reluctant Investors  


  No more guessing - know when to get in and out
                                                            for as low as $85 year 
                                                                                (annual renewals $75 thereafter)


  • Receive simple-to-execute allocation change e-mail alerts
  • Only requires 2 allocation adjustments per year with our lowest priced service
  • Also recieve access to at least two summary reports per year on the markets
  • Designed for all investors so you can focus on what matters in your life and not the markets




  Know when to sit out Bear markets


  • On average a new bear market begins every five years
  • The average bear market loss is 38% - the last two lost 48% and 56%
  • It takes a 100% gain to regain a 50% bear market loss
  • The financial news is most bullish at market tops and bearish at market bottoms
  • All levels of membership receive special alerts based on our market cycle indicators





  Stop the noise - focus on market leading indicators


  • Online Situation Reports – Tracking market leading indicators
  • Interim Updates – Market updates as required to market indicators and risks
  • Special Alerts – When our market indicators indicate caution and time to exit the market
  • For investors who want more information but without the noise



  Increase your trading percentages with our Almanacs




  • See the daily seasonal tendencies of your index funds with win-loss records 

                              S&P 500 index  (TSP C fund)

                              Small & Mid Cap fund (TSP S fund)

                              Fixed Income Fund  (TSP F fund)

  • Boost your returns with low risk seasonal cherry picking trades
  • We broke out the bull market years from the bear years and it changed core seasonal myths
  • For serious investors who like to make their own trades

full service for less than the price of a cappuccino a week  




 A sample of our alerts

on 30 January 2018 via email alert...

I am reducing our allocation level to 50% in my subjective timing model on 31 January 2018.

Discussion: Our risk indicator remains in the Safe Zone. Stock market internals are fine, so why the shift?

Parabolic moves in the stock market are not normal and once they stop advancing everyone's technical signals 

quickly reverse  and then selling creates a negative feedback loop.

our 18 August 2015 interim update warned ... 

Market internals remain weak and have for some time.  Aversion to risk as measured by credit spreads in the bond market have now reached levels that historically been met with significant market corrections ... in the stock market within weeks.

Note: Our models were already out of stocks in August but we sent the email alert as advertised. 

our members avoided significant losses...


again in our 14 December 2015  Special Timing Report we warned...


 ...our risk aversion indicators are indicating a potential market crash anytime in the next few weeks...


In early 2019, our seasonal models were fully invested in the stock market and my subjective model was holding a reduced allocation to equities due to problems in the Repo Markets.  The Federal Reserve had to flood the repo markets in late 2018 and the market surged.  Early in 2019, the Fed withdrew support from the Repo Market and our Risk Indicator signaled risk averse investors were stepping out of the market.  We sent an email warning to exit the market on 27 January 2020 and missed the crash...

The above four warnings are the only warnings we have sent out since 2012.  This does not mean we have recommended going 100% equities at other times.  We have been defensive and will stay defensive with our allocations until the market bubble is allowed to reset.  And by "allowed" I mean this market is being overly supported by global activist central banks. Is that good?

Support stock and bond market prices does not impact the future cash flows of these corporations.  Meaning high prices with unsupportive future profits and cash flow means the long-term returns of this market is at a historical low.  Some time in the future reality will catch up to prices. Meanwhile we have to trade the market we have, but remain defensive.  Buy and hold and the 60/40 portfolio will be devastating over the next 5-10 years.

Invest safe, invest smart


what Wall Street does for you ...


Wall Street ‘experts’ have missed every stock market crash in 20 years   Market Watch



Did your financial adviser warn you?  If so, keep them, otherwise keep reading.

Our simple-to-execute seasonally-modified buy & hold strategy

The simple act of missing the time of the  year that is historically weak for the stock market leads to one of the few strategies that beats buy and hold. 

The black line shows the results of only two allocation changes per year based on our total market signal.

Those who stop chasing short-term returns can beat buy & hold significantly over the course of the full market cycle (bull and bear markets) as seen in the chart.  

You can read about the results of the strategy for each fund using the best TSP strategy.  

Our basic level of service is only $85/year or currently $75 if you sign up via annual autopay.  ($185 for full access with almanacs).

We offer three levels of service - they all come with market warnings via email.  Scroll down to see what each option provides. 

This website provides a commercial service and is not affiliated with the Thrift Savings Plan administration.  Recommendations are based on our best judgment and opinions but no warranty is given or implied.  Past performance does not guarantee future performance or prevent losses.   All readers and subscribers agree to this website's Terms of Use and Investment Disclaimer.   Copyright © 2011-2021 Ravenstone Research Inc.  All Rights Reserved.  


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