Professional allocation advice grounded in history not hype

TSP Smart®
   & Vanguard Smart Investor

>>> follow blog

investor dashboard

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria...”

...and extend on massive cognitive failure.



 Welcome to TSP Smart & Vanguard Smart!  Keeping your funds safe is our top priority. 


About    Our Levels of Service    Contact Us 

About Our Allocation Models   About our Almanacs   

  Join Now  

for email warnings

All Members

Market Commentary 

2 December 2021

Sy Harding STS Tracker

Seasonal Investing 2021

Low Risk Funds Today 

Safe Investing Alternative Today

Updates and Alerts

30 November 2021

(copies of e-mail alerts)

Current Allocations

1 December 2021

Members: If you did not see the most recent e-mail posted on the Updates and Alerts link, check your spam settings and add our e-mail address to your e-mail settings!!! 

TSP Smart Full Access Members

Interim Updates

30 November 2021

The Smart Bird Reads

Articles of Interest

the rest of the story

TSP F fund Seasonal Pattern

for retirees and low-risk investors

About our Almanacs Side-by-side view of TSP C/S/F funds (S&P 500 / Small Caps / Fixed Income) daily seasonal tendencies based on the trading day of each month.  Allows you to identify days of seasonal strength or weakness based on flows of money into and out of the market. Our almanacs separate bull and bear markets data.


 Low-cost TSP investing

 Full Membership for the price of a weekly cappuccino


Financial Planning Links

National Institute of Transition Planning, Inc. eNewsletter Archives

An independent educational corporation providing transition seminars on federal retirement transition planning to include articles on TSP, FERS, healthcare insurance, disability, etc.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) website covering investing basics, investor alerts, publications, and working with investment advisers


Federal Employee Benefits Advisor Scam

Company used retirement benefits seminars to lure investors into his Ponzi scheme


BrokerCheck by FINRA 

Check our your broker here.  FINRA is the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Finra Investor Homepage

FINRA is dedicated to investor protection and market integrity through effective and efficient regulation of the securities industry.


TSP Real-time Proxies 

Compare S fund to VXF

Almanac Smart


About our Almanacs



4-year Presidential Cycle



Combined Jan - Apr


Combined Apr - July

Combined July - Oct

Combined Oct - Dec

almanacs include

SP500 index

(TSP C Fund)

large cap stocks

US non-SP500 index

(TSP S fund)

US small cap stocks

TSP F fund

Barclay's US 

aggregate bond index

Options Expiration Price Progressions

now incorporated in 

combined Almanacs

OpEx Seasonals


Trading Models 


 S&P 500 Turn-of-the-Year

TSP C Fund


TSP S Fund Turn-of-Year



Cherry Picking





I know, I know ... it looks too good to be true 


TSP investing results


View Results 

Common links


Vanguard Account

(Our Logon is in the  header)

Treasury Direct Log in




DCPAS (Defense Civilian)


MyPay     Tricare




OPM.Gov     OPM retirement  

DIY Research 

This website provides a commercial service and is not affiliated with the Thrift Savings Plan administration.  Recommendations are based on our best judgment and opinions but no warranty is given or implied.  Past performance does not guarantee future performance or prevent losses.   All readers and subscribers agree to this website's Terms of Use and Investment Disclaimer.   Copyright © 2011-2022 Ravenstone Research Inc.  All Rights Reserved.  


Powered by Wild Apricot Membership Software