North Korea EMP

U.S. came ‘much closer’ to war with North Korea in 2017 than the public knew, Trump told Woodward 16 September 2020 Washington Post

DHS Combats Potential Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack DHS Sept 2020

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) continues to prepare against ever evolving threats against the American homeland, most recently highlighting efforts to combat an Electromagnetic Pulse attack which could disrupt the electrical grid and potentially damage electronics.

Woodward Addresses Criticism That He Should've Detailed Trump Interviews Earlier 14 Sept 2020 NPR

Woodward told NPR's Kelly that war between the United States and North Korea got far closer than many realized in 2017.

"It reached the point ... that then-Secretary of Defense James Mattis would go to the National Cathedral to pray and reflect on what his responsibility would be if there was some sort of nuclear exchange with North Korea. It got very dicey," he said.

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Other threats: And it is not just a NK EMP threat, there is also space (sun) weather related issues that can have the same effect.  Enough so that President Obama quietly signed an Executive Order (Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events) to prepare for such an event.  Here is the intro passage:

Extreme space weather events -- those that could significantly degrade critical infrastructure -- could disable large portions of the electrical power grid, resulting in cascading failures that would affect key services such as water supply, healthcare, and transportation. Space weather has the potential to simultaneously affect and disrupt health and safety across entire continents.

A significant space weather event happened in 1859 that today would due the damage "across entire continents".  Many smaller storms have caused damage to limited systems and power grids.

The EMP Threat: How It Works and What It Means for the Korean Crisis 19 February 2018 George Friedman  via John Mauldin

An Assessment of the Situation based on public comments  2017 the Hill

The mainstream media, and some officials who should know better, continue to allege North Korea does not yet have capability to deliver on its repeated threats to strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons. False reassurance is given to the American people that North Korea has not “demonstrated” that it can miniaturize a nuclear warhead small enough for missile delivery, or build a reentry vehicle for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of penetrating the atmosphere to blast a U.S. city.

Yet any nation that has built nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, as North Korea has done, can easily overcome the relatively much simpler technological challenge of warhead miniaturization and reentry vehicle design.

Eight years ago, in 2008, the CIA's top East Asia analyst publicly stated North Korea successfully miniaturized nuclear warheads for delivery on its Nodong medium-range missile. The Nodong is able to strike South Korea and Japan or, if launched off a freighter, even the United States.

In 2011, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Lt. General Ronald Burgess, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that North Korea has weaponized its nuclear devices into warheads for arming ballistic missiles.

On April 7, 2015, at a Pentagon press conference, Admiral William Gortney, then Commander of North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD), responsible for protecting the U.S. from long-range missiles, warned that the intelligence community assesses North Korea's KN-08 mobile ICBM could strike the U.S. with a nuclear warhead.

And on October 7, 2015, Gortney again warned the Atlantic Council: "I agree with the intelligence community that we assess that they [North Koreans] have the ability, they have the weapons, and they have the ability to miniaturize those weapons, and they have the ability to put them on a rocket that can range the [U.S.] homeland."

In February and March of 2015, former senior national security officials of the Reagan and Clinton administrations warned that North Korea should be regarded as capable of delivering by satellite a small nuclear warhead, specially designed to make a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack against the United States.

According to the Congressional EMP Commission, a single warhead delivered by North Korean satellite could blackout the national electric grid and other life-sustaining critical infrastructures for over a year—killing 9 of 10 Americans by starvation and societal collapse.

Two North Korean satellites, the KMS-3 and KMS-4, presently orbit over the U.S. on trajectories consistent with surprise EMP attack.

Why do the press and public officials ignore or under-report these facts? Perhaps no administration wants to acknowledge that North Korea is an existential threat on their watch.

Threat Posed By EMP attack in 2008     Government Publishing Office, Hearing details from Committee of Armed Services House of Representatives

p29 Mr. BARTLETT. I would just like to note, Mr. Chairman, that if you are preparing for something like this in advance, say, years ahead, you are now a patriot, you are stimulating the economy, but if you do it hours before it happens, now you are a hoarder, and you are doing exactly the same thing; and timing is very critical there now, isn’t it?

p3 Dr. GRAHAM. Several potential adversaries have, and more can, acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude, nuclear-weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse. A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication.                     EMP will cover a wide geographic region within line of sight of a high-altitude nuclear detonation. The EMP has the capability to produce significant damage to our critical infrastructures and, thus, to the very fabric of U.S. society, as well the ability of the United States, our friends and our allies to project and influence, with military power and other means.                  The common element that can produce such an impact from EMP is primarily electronics in the infrastructure, so pervasive in all aspects of our society and military. Our vulnerability is increasing daily, as our use and dependence on electronics and automated systems continues to grow. The impact of EMP is asymmetric, in relation to potential adversaries, who are not as dependent on modern electronics as we are. Much of the efficiency of our society is generated through our use of electronics and automated systems, and that is also a potential vulnerability.                         The current vulnerability of our critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack, if not corrected...            A high-altitude electromagnetic pulse results from the detonation of a nuclear warhead at altitudes above about 25 miles over the country or over our forces. The immediate effect of EMP would be the disruption of and damage to the electronic systems and electrical infrastructure. This, in turn, can seriously impact important aspects of our whole national life, including telecommunications, the financial system, government services, the means of getting food, water, medical care, trade and production, as well as electrical power itself.                    Given our Armed Forces’ reliance on critical national infrastructures, the cascading failures could seriously jeopardize our military’s ability to execute its mission in support of national security. Projection of military power from air bases and seaports requires electricity, fuel, food and water. And the coordination of military operations depends on telecommunications and information systems that are so indispensable to society as a whole. Within the U.S., these assets are, in most cases, obtained by the military from our critical national infrastructures and from civilian providers.                               Several potential adversaries have the capability to attack the United States with high-altitude, nuclear-weapon-generated EMP, and others appear to be pursuing efforts to obtain that capability. Long-range ballistic missiles and a high level of technical sophistication are not prerequisites...                   Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States. While the commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities, we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect all of these dots. In fact, I don’t have another explanation for the high-altitude detonation of the Shahab-III and some of the Iranian tests or the launch off the Caspian Sea, other than to deploy an EMP type of attack.                                 Relatively low-yield, unsophisticated nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas. And designs for variances of such weapons, as well as more sophisticated weapons, appear to have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century at least.                                Recently, it has been reported in the press that United Nations investigators found that the design for an advanced nuclear weapon able to fit on ballistic missiles currently in the inventory of Iran, North Korea, and other potentially hostile states was in the possession of Swiss nationals affiliated with the AQ Khan nuclear proliferation network. This suggested nuclear weapons designs may already be in the possession of hostile states that sponsor terrorism. It also suggests that it would be a mistake to judge the status and sophistication of nuclear weapon programs based solely on the indigenous national capabilities, since outside assistance from proliferators is probably the norm.                                 EMP effects from nuclear bursts are not new threats to our Nation. What is different now is that some potential sources of EMP threats are difficult to deter. They may be may rogue regimes or terrorist groups that have no state identity. They may have only one or a few nuclear weapons and be motivated to attack the U.S. without regard for their own safety.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ...Much more in this 47 page report....

On Effects: North Korean EMP Attack Would Cause Mass U.S. Starvation, Says Congressional Report 23 October 2017 Forbes Science

But in an EMP attack, such accuracy is not necessary because the pulse radius would be so large, says Peter Vincent Pry, who recently testified about the EMP threat before a congressional Homeland Security subcommittee. His conclusions are that such an EMP attack would wreak havoc across the whole of the continental U.S.

And if the EMP device just happens to be part onboard an orbiting satellite, North Korea need only detonate the device remotely via encoded signal. Pry, Chief of Staff of the now de-funded Congressional EMP Commission, told me that at an altitude of 300 kilometers, the resulting electromagnetic pulse would affect all 48 contiguous states.

After generating gamma-rays that interact with air molecules in Earth’s stratosphere, a so-called fast pulse EMP field of tens of kilovolts would only last a few hundred nanoseconds.

But in the event of such an attack, aircraft electronics would be fried, as well as electronics in air traffic control towers, and navigation systems  , says Pry. “Airliners would crash killing many of the 500,000 people flying over North America at any given moment,” he said.

Pry says electro-mechanical systems which regulate the flow of gas through pipelines would spark; causing the gas to ignite and result in massive firestorms in cities and large forest fires.

There would be no water; no communications; and mass transportation would be paralyzed, says Pry.

Some 2000 extra-high voltage (EHV) transformers make up the foundation of the U.S. grid, says Pry. But as he notes, since they each weigh hundreds of tons, they are extraordinarily hard to transport. Thus, if most are destroyed, there’s no quick fix.

Report: Joint Hearing on “The EMP Threat: The State of Preparedness against the Threat of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Event”  May 2015

Key Findings from the EMP Commission Report of 2008

• Long-line connected equipment is especially vulnerable to EMP and GMD
• The lack of progress in protecting civilian infrastructures to EMP and GMD is due to three main factors:

1. There are prevalent misconceptions about EMP and GMD threats and consequences.
2. Stakeholders are reluctant to act. 
3. No single organization is the designated executive agent. 

4. [My add] It is impossible to protect against at the national level.

 North Korea Says It Plans to Launch Many More Satellites  17 October 2017  Bloomberg

Satellites can deliver EMP attacks at anytime and their past launches appear to be in an orbit optimized for an EMP attack from the south away from our sensors.  See... The other North Korean threat 15 August 2017   The Washington Times

Going Nuclear Over the Pacific  15 August 2012  the Smithsonian

History of US EMP test StarFish in 1962

“To our great surprise and dismay, it developed that Starfish added significantly to the electrons in the Van Allen belts,” Atomic Energy Commission Glenn Seaborg wrote in his memoirs. “This result contravened all our predictions.”

More than half a dozen satellites had been victimized by radiation from the blast. Telstar, the AT&T communications satellite launched one day after Starfish, relayed telephone calls, faxes and television signals until its transistors were damaged by Starfish radiation. (The Soviets tested their own high-altitude thermonuclear device in October 1962, which further damaged Telstar’s transistors and rendered it useless.)

 Trump Must Disarm NKorea Nuclear Monster — Now  21 August 2017

Uncomfortable Political Analysis from Peter Pry

Peter Vincent Pry is executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, a congressional advisory board dedicated to achieving protection of the United States from electromagnetic pulse (EMP), cyberwarfare, mass destruction terrorism and other threats to civilian critical infrastructures, on an accelerated basis. Pry also is director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter weapons of mass destruction.

Before the Lights Go Out: A Survey of EMP Preparedness Reveals Significant Shortfalls 15 August 2011  The Heritage Foundation

There are a lot of links to references within this report

As for Russia they have been building massive underground shelters prepared for nuclear war

Counter arguments to the threat

A guy named Kyle wrote and article in Popular Mechanics that refutes the former CIA chiefs claim that EMP is a real threat.  There are others and I take a look at their arguments to see if there is merit.  I would like to find something.

Kyle's points echoed by others as I understand them:

"No one knows how large a nuke it would take to destroy all of Americas power grid" and I have also seen "no one knows what the best altitude to denote a nuke is because there has not been enough testing".

- They do and it is not large because the nuke is merely the fuse.  Fuses do not have to be large.  As for the altitude and lack of research.  It only took one successful test by the Russians and Americans in the early 60s to scare them into not doing more.  I think they found the right size and altitude and there is enough knowledge out there to make the next one more devastating.

- My guess is NK is interested in two simultaneous denotations - one over each coast.  What bothers many is this could done from satellites re-positioning themselves to the correct height just prior to denotation.  NK has two satellites in space presently that appear to be spaced apart in a way that occasionally pass over the east and west coast at the same time.  While I do not think they have nukes on them, they could be research into this concept and to get the US used to NK satellites passing over head.  NK has recently said they plan to launch many more satellites.  

The claim that 90% of Americans would die in a year if the power grid goes down is based off a novel written about such an event that was echoed by former Maryland Congressman Bartlett who Kyle implies ran off to the woods to live as a survivalist. 

- Partially true.  He did read the book and he believed it was fairly accurate and tried to warn our government to do more while he was in Congress.  He is now in his 90s and basically retired to an off-the-grid life.  He was a former Navy engineer and remained a consultant for a cyber security firm after leaving congress. So he is not some nut as implied. 

-Just because the book was fiction does not make the effects untrue.  Newt Gingrich wrote the forward to the book "One Second After" that Bartlett read and I do not believe he has been put in the "nut" category yet. The "afterword" was written by an former USN Captain who is an expert on EMP weapons and is seen next.

Threat Posed By EMP attack 

2008 Hearing details from Committee of Armed Services House of Representatives

US EarthEx Aug 2017 #1 threat was EMP   Just FYI

Public Health Response to a Nuclear Detonation  

Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Nice pic on the CDC website for a 18 January 2018 presentation...

 Why this Matters Now