A professional allocation timing service

TSP Smart Investor& Vanguard Smart Investor

bellwether timing results

Painting the picture of our Bellwether timing over two market cycles

You can look at our detailed individual fund pages to learn more, but here we combined all the results into one chart and several tables.  The results are based on one Bellwether timing signal meaning all the funds move in and out of the market on the same day.  What you will see is while seasonal investing improves all funds over buy and hold, the small cap funds enjoy the greatest benefits to seasonal investing.

Please note that our strategy only requires two allocation changes per year in order to avoid the unfavorable half of the year for stocks.  It is an advanced Sell-in-May strategy building off the work of Sy Harding and optimized for any SP500 index funds and small cap funds (TSP C and S fund).  What you will see below shows what happens to your long term returns when you avoid taking the large losses that historically hit the market during the summer and fall.  The chart below have the individual year returns and the cumulative returns since 2000 using this simple-to-execute strategy.  The bottom-line is that following our Bellwether timing signal increased the SP500 index funds return from 159% to 396% total return since the beginning of 2000.  The small cap funds do better thanks to their larger seasonal volatility.

The Favorable Season for Equities

Let's look at the results in reverse - what returns did you miss because you sat out the unfavorable for stocks in a safe interest bearing fund.  The bottom line in the next table is even if you sat in cash earning 0%, you came out ahead in all the funds. Note that the small cap funds lost 44% cumulatively over the summer, but this loss required a 79% gain to break even during the favorable season for stocks.  Again eliminating the losses is more important than missing our occasionally on some gains while out of the market.

The Unfavorable Season for Equities

Details for 

SP500 index

non-SP500 index

Russell 2000 index

the DJIA






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