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TSP Smart Investor& Vanguard Smart Investor

subjective Expedient timing results

Our Subjective Model 


We have been very defensive since I started the subjective Expedient model in late 2014.  Subjective means base on my opinions but informed by our Objective Bellwether Timing Model.  Our average market exposure for the last four years has been only 18% in equity funds with is less than the 20% exposure the TSP Lifecycle Retirement fund held.  Our returns beat the retirement fund as well as the more aggressive 2020 Lifecycle fund which ws allocated 35% to equity funds.  With only 18% market exposure to equity funds on average, we even beat all the TSP funds except the SP500 fund.  I did not mean for my Expedient model to become very low risk, but we have been defensive since 2015 based on stock market valuations.  



 

 

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