TSP Timing Services Review

Updated:  April 2020

While the following report is not current, it provides considerations in choosing a timing service that are still very valid.  I also recommend you view the TSP guide with information on the funds and strategies that should effect your allocations (see TSP Allocation Advice).

This review provides a snapshot of the TSP timing services available as of 2016.  We did not subscribe to any of these online TSP Timing newsletters and can not determine if each service's stated performance is accurate.  The results are self-reported from their respective websites.  Our review is limited to observable data presented on their websites.  

One take-away from this quick look is that most services fall into the speculative trading category since they recommend many allocations changes annually most likely due to some form of technical analysis (charts and trends, etc). 

Please notify us at support@ravenstone.email on any mistakes or changes to data so I can correct the info as soon as possible.  Ravenstone Research Inc. is associated with the TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor service so we will re-frame from making specific recommendations, but we will present some verifiable basic factors we observed in our review of their websites.  Most service websites can be found by simply googling their names for further comparisons. 

Most independent services self-report their results on their websites.  TSP Radar and TSP Smart both started using a professional timing service in 2014.  TSP Talk provides a reliable timing service for their integrated subscription services highlighted in blue in the table.  TSP Center also provides a timing tracking service but if a service forgets to update their trades on time, they have no way of fixing the discrepancy.   

Sorted by price: Independent services (gray), TSP Talk services (blue) and TSP Center related services (red). 

TSP Timing Newsletters 

Discussion: Most services required investors to make significant allocation changes each year which is typical of trading based on technical analysis.  Some offered monthly adjustments based on momentum analysis, etc.  Technical analysis is based primarily on recent price movements (patterns, trends, momentum).  

Few services provide the name of the manager upfront and few used professional tracking services for investment timers. The TSP Strategy Yahoo Group manager's name and profile is available but not listed on the table above due to a late find... Although no information is provided on how she makes allocation change decisions.  

A timing service or strategy should be measured by how it does in both up and down markets.  Bear markets can give back all of a long bull market's gains in less than 2 years.  For example, the TSP Strategy Group, a free service, held the TSP I fund to the bottom in the bear market in 2008 (per their website, see table at bottom of page).  Nine years later, the group's returns had clawed there way back to a 9-year total return of only 26% compared to the 27% for the lowly G fund or 75% for the C fund.  

Only two sites report beating buy and hold over the 9-year period. TSP Coach (self-reported) employing monthly allocation changes and TSP Smart's formula driven strategy that only re-allocated twice per year using an advanced Sell-in-May strategy.

The inability to beat buy & hold throughout a full market cycle (bull and bear market) is not confined to TSP timing services.  Mark Hulbert's Financial Digest tracked thousands of investment newsletters and while many out-performed for several years few stayed on top during both bull and bear markets.  More importantly, few beat the SP500 index funds.  

Is this another recommendation for passive investing in the SP500 (TSP C fund)?  Absolutely not.

Investors need to avoid the large losses in bear markets or else suffer years trying to get back to even like TSP Strategy Group did.  Pick your adviser wisely, know who they are and what method they use.  Don't chase the top performer each year.  And don't pick one that requires a lot of allocation changes unless you can keep up. And as you will see below, more allocations did not equal better performance.  Take a look...

TSP Timing Signals

The individual year returns are posted at the bottom of the page.

Often during long bull markets the best performing timers ARE those who simply held 100% in stocks.  So they end up higher on the list under 3 or 5-year returns during the sixth year of a bull market.  Most often they fall to the bottom of the 1 or 2-year returns after a bear market.  The 9-year return above includes both a bear market and most of the recent bull market. Notice the shift in top services.  If possible, find out how an timing service or strategy performed going back through the last bear market.

The above charts were based off the following data.   Please report any discrepancies and where to verify data.

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor offers Best TSP Allocation for free and the three part series is a good place to start for both serious and reluctant TSP investors.